<![CDATA[Sensible Speculation - Blog]]>Sat, 03 Feb 2018 14:31:21 -0500Weebly<![CDATA[A contrarian MLP closed end fund investment for 2018]]>Wed, 20 Dec 2017 16:49:36 GMThttp://sensiblespeculation.com/blog/a-contrarian-mlp-closed-end-fund-investment-for-2018
<![CDATA[Replacing GER with TTP as a possible 2018 closed-end MLP contrarian speculation]]>Tue, 28 Nov 2017 17:57:41 GMThttp://sensiblespeculation.com/blog/replacing-ger-with-ttp-as-a-possible-2018-contrarian-candidate

After carefully reviewing the portfolio comparison between DSE, GER, and KYN I have decided that there isn't enough pipeline exposure in the current candidate list. GER is being replaced by the Tortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund (NYSE:TTP) to correct the imbalance. In spite of a "less than desirable" 11.5% allocation to oil & gas production TTP offers superior exposure to the pipeline industry.

Information on the  Tortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund can be found at this link

Information on the other possible closed-end MLP contrarian candidates are at these links:
Duff & Phelps Select Energy MLP    DSE  
Kayne Anderson MLP                          KYN

I'll keep you posted as I continue the process of choosing the 2018 MLP closed-end fund contrarian portfolio.

<![CDATA[A possible opportunity for a 2018 contrarian speculation]]>Tue, 21 Nov 2017 14:53:36 GMThttp://sensiblespeculation.com/blog/a-possible-candidate-for-a-2018-contrarian-speculation

2017 has been a brutal year for master limited partnership (MLP) closed-end funds. Year to date, no closed-end MLP is showing positive returns. While I will steer away from energy exploration and producing MLPs I am growing interested in the MLPs that concentrate on pipelines and mid-stream assets. Near the end of 2017 I will look to see if tax loss selling has created an even better buying opportunity.

At this point I am most closely watching DSE, GER, and KYN as possible investments.

Till then, cash is a position too!

<![CDATA[Can a Sensible Speculator beat the S&P 500 over the long haul?]]>Tue, 07 Nov 2017 15:36:54 GMThttp://sensiblespeculation.com/blog/can-a-sensible-speculator-beat-the-sp-500-over-the-long-haulBuy and hold investors will tell you it's impossible to beat the market, so just buy a cheap index fund and sit back and watch.

The problem with that is while you'll likely increase your portfolio value, the odds are slim that you'll reach a comfortable retirement without investing significant additional capital. The following chart shows that $10,000 invested in 1995 in a well known S&P 500 index fund (VFINX) resulted in $85,011 (If compounded in a tax deferred account). That's a nice sum, but if you're really frugal it might get you through a year of retirement in 22 years.

On the other hand, using a simple relative strength timing model in conjunction with the T. Rowe Price International Discovery Fund (PRIDX) and the Rydex 1.2x Government Bond Fund (RYGBX) turned $10,000 into $1,003,698.

Will the next 22 years produce the same results? Probably not! The returns could be higher or lower. But, wouldn't you rather work with a plan that has a 22 year history of significant out performance? I'll post how it was done right before Christmas.

<![CDATA[60/40 Investing in Emerging Markets]]>Thu, 19 Oct 2017 11:12:23 GMThttp://sensiblespeculation.com/blog/6040-investing-in-emerging-markets30% T Rowe Price Emerging Markets Bond Fund (PREMX)
30% T Rowe Price International Discovery Stock Fund (PRIDX)
40% Rydex Government Long Bond Fund (RYGBX)
Re-balance annually
11.57% CAGR since 1995      Maximum drawdown (monthly basis) -20.53%

<![CDATA[60 / 40 Investing (on steroids)]]>Sun, 24 Sep 2017 13:37:04 GMThttp://sensiblespeculation.com/blog/60-40-investing-on-steroidsThe 60/40 investing rule says you should have 60% of your portfolio in stocks and 40% in bonds. For those who can stomach the drawdowns, how about 60/40 investing on steroids? Using 2x leveraged ETFs 60% SSO / 40% UBT (Re-balanced annually)

21.44% CAGR since inception, 13.33% maximum drawdown.

<![CDATA[Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index©/Gross Domestic Product is now 20% higher than it was at the peak of the dot com boom.]]>Fri, 25 Aug 2017 14:44:47 GMThttp://sensiblespeculation.com/blog/wilshire-5000-total-market-indexcgross-domestic-product-is-now-20-higher-than-it-was-at-the-peak-of-the-dot-com-boom]]><![CDATA[The S&P Small Cap 600 Index closed below its 200 day simple moving average on Friday. Small caps aren't the place to be! I'm a "perma bull", but cash is a position too!]]>Fri, 11 Aug 2017 13:13:45 GMThttp://sensiblespeculation.com/blog/the-sp-small-cap-600-index-closed-below-its-200-day-simple-moving-average-on-friday-small-caps-arent-the-place-to-be-im-a-perma-bull-but-cash-is-a-position-too]]><![CDATA[The lazy person's way to trounce the S&P 500 (and most hedge funds)]]>Fri, 21 Jul 2017 14:35:14 GMThttp://sensiblespeculation.com/blog/the-lazy-persons-way-to-trounce-the-sp-500-and-most-hedge-funds
  • 1/3 real estate via the CGM Realty Fund (CGMRX)
  • 1/3 stock market via the Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX)
  • 1/3 U. S. treasury bonds via the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund (VUSTX)
  • Equally weighted allocation, re-balanced annually

<![CDATA[Harvesting more profit!]]>Fri, 14 Jul 2017 16:14:24 GMThttp://sensiblespeculation.com/blog/harvesting-more-profitTime to exit my health care contrarian bet from 12/29/2016. Building up cash for new opportunities!

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